Setting Goals – How I decided on 2:37 for My Marathon Target

Earlier this year I picked running a marathon in under 2:37 as my challenge for 2016. Because this challenge is very specific, I wanted to spend some time discussing my thought process behind it. I think it will help add context to this particularly goal and how I approach goal setting in general.

Deciding On A Level of Difficulty

The first thing I do when setting a goal is decide on how difficult I want it to be to achieve.

I am an extremely competitive and motivated person so I like to pick challenges that will stretch me. I like to be scared that I won’t be able to achieve it so that I have to be resourceful in order to succeed. I like the process. Standing at the peak isn’t the end that justifies the means for me, it is the means for me justifying the end that is the hard work, ingenuity & learning along the way.

Levels of Difficulty

The problem with setting really challenging goals is that they can eat up a lot of time, money and other valuable resources. Last year I discussed the problem with escalation and it was something I thought about again this year. I wanted to have something that challenged me but that wouldn’t eat exorbitant amounts of time, my most limited factor right now.

On the opposite side of the spectrum, the problem with setting goals that are too easy is you don’t take them seriously enough. I realized about two months into my Ironman training in 2014 that I could have finished the race right then. Without a higher goal in sight, I would have had a hard time justifying more training. I would likely have just done a bit more casual training until the race and then retuned a mediocre result. I’ve done that before with other things, and learned that doesn’t satisfy me. It misses out on the process, which is the best part of setting goals that are often arbitrary and ultimately meaningless.

Getting Context

On top of all of this, when setting a challenge it is important to consider context. What else do I have going on this year? How will this be affected positively or negatively by other efforts I’m undertaking. For example trying to have a baby, launch a new product at work, surf Mavericks and complete an Ironman all in the same year would be unwise. (also known as 2014)

2016 Level of Difficulty

For this year I decided I wanted my challenge to be really difficult, no matter what it was. The main reason being that I’ve succeeded at my last three. That might seem strange, but the measure of good stretch goals is that you periodically fail. If you don’t, you’re likely not stretching yourself to your maximum. I’ve decided that failing 1 out of every 4-5 is a good litmus test. That means that if I succeed at this, next year’s challenge will have to be impossibly hard.

I narrowed down my list to a few challenges but ultimately decided on running a marathon due to a few things:

  1. The fact that I’m turning 30 this year and 30 is considered the peak age for marathon running. I figured that given the flexibility, it is best to do things when you are best at those things.
  2. I am currently living in Seattle which isn’t great for surfing due to proximity to the beach but is great for running which is much easier to do in the dark & rain than many other activities. (Seattle has lots of dark & rain)
  3. Wanted something physical to compliment my other activities which are not as physical

Having decided on running a marathon & wanting to take full advantage of my marathon running peak, I decided to shoot for a really fast time. This might be the fastest I ever clock.

So what should I shoot for?

Understanding My Potential

For some context, I’ve never raced a marathon before. If I had, I would likely have based my goal on my past performance – perhaps aiming to improve by 5% or something.

Without the benefit of that experience I have to use other methods to first understand what was reasonable for me, and then to set a goal that would be a stretch.

Reference Any Relevant Experience

Thought I haven’t raced a marathon, I did complete a 26.2 mile run at the end of my Ironman in 2014. My time for that leg was 3:45:11. Keep in mind I did this after swimming 2.4 miles and biking 112. I know that is my local maximum.

During the training for that race I did a 20 mile run at 7:30/mile the day after a 90 mile bike ride. Had I done 6 more miles at that pace it would have put me 3:16:30. I was confident I could do that again if I got into similar shape. If I was running fresh off of a taper, I would estimate being able to break 3:00.

Reference Scaling Approximations

The second thing I looked to was information to help me compare past races I had completed to this distance. Fortunately there are some great tables, unfortunately, there are a few and they don’t always disagree.

My friend Josiah, a great runner & coach, recommended the following one. The times boxed in red are the closest times to PRs from when I was in college & the orange are the closest times from my PRs during non-peak races. The green seemed like a reasonable target.

race-distance-conversion-table

Benchmark Against Peers

The next thing I did was similar to the above but more anecdotal. I thought about a few friends I had raced a lot with and their peak performances.

Josiah, referenced above was always a few notches faster than me, ~20 seconds a mile in the 5k, and recently ran a 2:29 marathon. Chris, another college teammate, is someone who I still argue with about who was/is faster (I’ve got the PRs, championship races, and local newspaper cover on my side). He ran a 2:46 a number of years ago (though I misremembered it as 2:43 when I was planning).

This puts my target somewhere between those two times, likely closer towards the latter.

Significant Milestones

When setting goals, it is always nice if there is a significant milestone to aim for. The New York Times showed that people really like aiming for arbitrary round numbers, which has its pros and cons, but clearly affects performance as indicated by the various spikes.

marathon-round-numbers

As I looked at the marathon, a few milestone times came to mind for me

  • 3:05 – Boston Marathon qualifying time. Considered one of the most prestigious races to qualify for, hitting the appropriate time for their age group is a goal for many marathon runners.
  • 2:59 – Sub three hours is a round number that puts you in the top of the pack
  • 2:53 – New York Marathon qualifying time. The hardest major US race to qualify for due to having fewer spots available for qualifiers. A race I’d really like to run.
  • 2:46 – Chris’ PR – beating him is one of my favorite hobbies
  • 2:37 – Sub 6:00 miles
  • 2:29 – Sub 2:30 puts you in a very elite group of runners
  • 2:19 – Olympic Trials qualifier. Though only three of ~300 people make the US Olympic team, getting to the qualifier race is a major milestone for many.

As I reflected on this list 2:59 felt like a safe bet – something I should be able to do barring any injuries or unplanned setbacks. 2:53 and 2:46 an appropriate challenge. I would be excited to hit between those marks. 2:37 to me is a major stretch – I will probably not be able to do this in my first year racing marathons. That is why I’m so excited about this year.

Final Thought

As I shared this goal, I got some comments that shooting for too fast of a time might hinder me – that being more realistic would ensure I didn’t crash.

I wanted to emphasize two things.

  1. My goal time doesn’t necessarily mean I will attempt to go that pace on race day. If based on my training I see that I’m not in that shape, I’ll aim for something more moderate and let my body sort it out in the last half.
  2. My training plan doesn’t have much to do with my goal. I will be running a pretty set schedule and using periodic time trials to adjust my spot on the pacing table.

2016 Focus: Goal, Theme, Challenge & Exemplar

With the start of a new year, I take the time to set my focus for the coming year. I’ve enjoyed this activity as it has slowly evolved over the past four years. It helps me strive to complete things that I think are important or interesting but more importantly it give me focus by allowing me to say ‘no’ to other things.

Categories

Here are definitions for the four categories of efforts I undertake.

Goal – Something I want to accomplish that is measurable and relatively continual. e.g. exercise X times per week or decrease sugar consumption by X percent. These are often habits I want to build into my life an my hope is that by doing it for a year, it will stick.

Theme – A central topic for the year – something I can spend time thinking about and take a few concrete efforts towards. e.g. living in community or freedom. These are often abstract ideas that are hard to measure but important to spend time focusing on.

Challenge – Something I want to conquer. Crossing an item off my bucket list. e.g. climb Mr. Everest or learn to tight rope walk. These are binary, I either complete them or I don’t.

Exemplar – (new for 2016) A person that exemplifies something I value and who I want to model habits, process or ideas from. I will spend time learning a bit more about what made them tick and try to put a few of their ideas into practice. e.g. Steve Jobs or Teddy Roosevelt

2016 Focuses

2016 Goal: Write 50 Blog Posts

2016-goal-writing

I’ve written over 100 blog posts over the last 5 years. Mostly as a way of documenting things I’m thinking about for my own purposes, but sometimes to share them.

I enjoy writing on a public blog because it holds me to a higher standard. I realize people might read it and so I put more effort into it than I would a journal. Sometimes people do actually read it and I always enjoy the conversation that follows. Whether they agree or disagree – I learn something more through the conversation.

This year I got a bit of a taste of success. Of my 15 substantial blog posts, one went viral and racked up over 100k reads – also getting republished on qz.com. I really liked that experience and got a ton of positive feedback.

I’m going to lean into that and practice this skill a bit more in 2016. Along with exploring more topics, I will likely focus some on the craft of writing, learning more about how I can hone my voice and effectively communicate to a large audience through writing.

One post a week should be prove a manageable though challenging volume – the good news is I already have 20 drafts in various stages. Look for more posts on topics like; minimalism, heath (my theme of the year), parenting, product management, running and inevitably some politics (see who my Exemplar is below)

2016 Theme: Health

Photo credit: https://flic.kr/p/pz1hGy
Photo credit: https://flic.kr/p/pz1hGy

Heath is an abstract concept to me. I think I can spot its opposite when I see it, but I don’t know that I have a firm definition for its presence.

I already feel heath is an important thing to have, but I want to spend this year defining exactly what it is, how I measure it and what I can do to ensure it is with me for as long as possible.

I hope that in doing more research I will learn about new facets of heath and begin to synthesize them with what I already know. That will allow me to create a more unified perspective that I can begin putting into practice.

2016 Challenge: Run a Sub 2:37 Marathon

2016-challenge-marathon

Running is probably the thing I am best at from a percentile point of view. I’ve been doing it competitively for over 20 years, have a body well designed for it and have the mental toughness to train and race at a high level.

Because of that, I am really pushing the bar this year. I usually like to strive for being in the top 5-10% at an activity I put time into. Running a 2:37, however, would put me in the top 1% of marathon finishers (top 0.2-0.5% actually) and qualify me for the Boston Marathon with ~30 minutes to spare.

To do it, I will have to maintain an average pace of just under 6 minutes per mile for the whole 26.2 miles.

2016 Exemplar: Benjamin Franklin

2016-exemplar-benjamin-franklin
Photo credit: https://flic.kr/p/6d8EGN

The idea for this new category actually came to me last week as I finished his autobiography. I kept coming across practices of his I wanted to borrow for my own life. This seemed like a great way to do that.

Ben was a lot of things, but the one that stands out to me most is his intentionality and drive. He continually pushed himself to be better. From what I can tell, not necessarily as a means of achieving anything, but as an end in itself.

Because of that he went from humble beginnings to a position of much influence. Shoot, he is literally the face on the largest currency amount of the most powerful nation in the history of the world.

This year I will be learning more about him and implementing a few of his practices and ideas. (Air baths here I come…)