2020 Focus: Half Year Update

With the start of a new year, I take the time to set my focus for the coming year. I believe that by being selective about where I direct my energy, I can achieve results that are exponentially greater than if I split that energy across many different goals.

I detailed my 2020 focus here (read that first if you want more context) & did a quarter year update as well.. Here is how I’m progressing.

2020 Theme: Action Economy

What a strange second second quarter.

My theme this year is action economy which is about achieving more in life while using fewer resources. I am relating to board games as a metaphor to think through this topic.

I didn’t achieve much in life over the last few months, but I did play a lot of board games. That seems counterproductive to the goal, but in a funny way I think I’ll get to use the metaphor even more than I predicted due to how deeply I now understand a few games.

Specifically, I played a fair amount of the games Carcassonne and For Sale online – with friends, coworkers and random strangers. These games are very different from each other, but both very much about making the best use of your limited resources and patiently waiting for the perfect opportunity to strike.

It is a bit ironic that in a year where I’m focused on doing more, I did a lot of not doing those things. But in some ways, what can you do, I was quarantined, stuck inside, dealing with a ton of stress, etc.

2020 Challenge: Develop a Strategy Evaluation Model

I haven’ progressed here at all.

2020 Habit: Run 13 Projects & 52 Common Tasks Through the Model

I’ve logged data about a few more tasks, but really not done much here.

2020 Exemplar: Warren Buffett

I finished the biography about Buffett, and decided to start reading some primary source material – all of the annual letters he has written to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders since 1965. It is a fascinating read and also perfect for calming me down at the end of the day.

While reading his biography I learned a lot of interesting things about him – one that stood out was his love of odds, particular highlighted in a story about non-transitive dice. I bought a set of them and intend to put them to use in a similar fashion to how he did – to find out who knows a bit about probability and test those who think they know more than a bit.

2020 Bucket List Item: 100+ Mile PNW SUP & Trail Running Adventure

I am currently debating between two adventures and the level of difficulty I want to take on, depending on which one I select.

The first option is one I’ve mentioned before, a 20 mile long lake with hundreds of miles of wilderness trails around it. I would paddle, camp and run, trying to cover 100+ miles over a 2-4 day period. I’ve found some really interesting trails to explore and the waterways look beautiful.

The second option is a SUP tour of the San Juan islands. I would paddle between the islands, running trails on each and camping on beaches.

The two are very different challenges.

The former is world class running but the SUPing seems a bit unnecessary as I can get to all of the trails I’d cover via some more running, and frankly it would probably be simpler and faster. That said, it would be a nice way to try out a SUP adventure because worst case I could run back to my car.

The latter is a perfect SUP adventure, but the running seems a bit unnecessary. I might be able to find a few trails that are interesting but really, the waterways are what matters there. This option is also a lot more intense – there are killer whales, currents, waves, large vessels and other things to consider. I am perhaps not qualified to take a challenge like this on.

As I debate these two locations, I’m debating how difficult I want to make the adventure. Should I double the maximum activity I’ve ever done (last year’s 98 mile Wonderland trail run) and shoot for ~200 or should I aim for something closer to 100 miles. And as I do so, should I aim for a breakneck pace of 50+ miles per day of wilderness travel or do a more relaxing 25-30? Part of me really wants to push my limits and break new ground, seeing what I’m made of. But part of me wants to use this as a chance to relax a bit and come back refreshed physically and mentally, rather than drained but feeling accomplished.

There is another. I guess I should mention this. But this one is probably too crazy to try this year. North of Vancouver Island in Canada, on the way to Alaska, is some remote wilderness where water meets islands and glacial fjords. The place has more grizzly bears than humans and I’m sure there are spots up there no human has ever stepped foot on.

Part of me wants to just pick a point on the map and see if I can get there. But that might require a) some more mountaineering skills b) an adventure partner c) a bit more load testing of my gear. Not to mention the US-Canada border is technically closed right now due to COVID. I guess I’ll put this one on the bucket list for now.

I finished selecting all of the gear I think will serve me best, I’ve done a few 4-6 hour runs as training and I recently realized that I should attempt a decent SUP, especially considering I’d never done more than a casual mile before and I’d should probably get a decent estimate of how long it would take to go 10 miles before I attempted a 50 mile trip, lest I grossly miscalculate.

2020 Focus: Quarter Year Update

With the start of a new year, I take the time to set my focus for the coming year. I believe that by being selective about where I direct my energy, I can achieve results that are exponentially greater than if I split that energy across many different goals.

I detailed my 2020 focus here (read that first if you want more context). Here is how I’m progressing.

2020 Theme: Action Economy

This theme is all about accomplishing as much as possible with as few resources as possible. It is basic economics – scarcity & objectives. For me the limited resource, at this point in my life, tends to be time and so that is my focus for the year.

I’m using ‘action economy’ a concept from boardgames as a paradigm to think through this theme. With that in mind, I’ve been playing a lot of board games over the first three months of the year. I learned a new game called Twilight Imperium, which is one of the more complex & involved boardgames, and can take 5-10 hours to play. I attended a weekend board game convention, setup a biweekly board game night with friends, plus have a few groups at work I play with (in person previously and now online during the lockdown). This is appropriate for the theme of the year but also part of my winter coping strategy. This early part of the year is usually long, dark & wet so staying indoors and playing board games is something I can look forward to, which helps me deal wit the time of the year I don’t look forward to.

I intend to start taking this board game thinking and applying it more to life in the coming months.

2020 Challenge: Develop a Strategy Evaluation Model

I’ve done some light thinking on this, enough to start recording data about a few tasks, but not enough to evaluate them. The crux of this issue will come down to how much I value time. Often I find that achieving a goal is a simple tradeoff between time & money. Should I build the thing myself over two hours or pay someone $400 for a pre-built one? That depends on how I value my time.

From some light thinking on the value of time I know that it should somewhat correlate with my hourly rate & my earnings potential. It should also likely relate to what I will learn by doing the task myself and how much I enjoy doing the task. I need to formalize all of this a bit more and build in a model that allows me to tweak some assumptions. One of the trickiest parts of this is that the value of my time will be impacted by future things I have no control over or can’t yet foresee. For example if I were to get laid off, my time would become much less valuable very quickly as I’d have more of it available but if I were to suddenly adopt three more children, I would have a lot less time and thus my time would likely become even more valuable, certainly in the short term. I’m not sure that either of those will happen, but either is a possibility.

2020 Habit: Run 13 Projects & 52 Common Tasks Through the Model

As mentioned above, I haven’t done much thinking about the model yet, so I haven’t put this into practice much yet either. I’ve taken two very concrete and simple projects and recorded data about them though, to help me evaluate them once I do have a model.

The first related to my fitness watch breaking. One day in January it suddenly fell off my arm when the rubber strap tore. I use my watch for helping me actively maintain my health – tracking sleep, activity & runs – so replacing it was important to me. The question was, how best to do it? I could do any of; buying another of the same watch online, take time to research if a newer and better model had been released, try to fix the rubber strap, contact the company that made it and see if it was under warranty, etc. I actually did a few of those so I could measure the real time and money it took to do each. Now I have data, but it is still hard for me to answer which one was the better path without having a model to compare the value of time, money, energy, etc.

2020 Exemplar: Warren Buffett

What a fun year to pick Warren Buffett as an exemplar. 2020 has started out with the fastest (and one of the largest) stock market crash in history. Buffett is famous for beating the market in times of growth and contraction. Most of that is due to how he values companies and his involvement in them. I’m getting a real time load test of things I’m learning about him and getting to watch him in action.

Tangibly, I’m 1/4 of the way through the best regarded biography about him and I’ve chosen to take a financial stake in his company, Berkshire Hathaway. When I decided to invest with him, to give me some more stake in following along with him, I was surprised to learn that a single share of BRK-A sells for $300,000 – meaning that is the smallest amount you can invest. Thankfully at some point they released a series B of their stock (BRK-B) that trades for only $200, allowing me to buy in at a much lower point. I would love to one day own a share of BKR-A though, something to put on the bucket list.

2020 Bucket List Item: 100+ Mile PNW SUP & Trail Running Adventure

What an interesting time to plan an adventure.

It is unclear if I will be able to do this, as many parks are closed due to social distancing rules right now. The waterways aren’t closed though, so this might end up evolving into more SUP and less running.

That said, if things return to normal, I’ve picked the location for my adventure. A worm-shaped lake on the border of the US & Canada called Ross Lake. It is a glacial lake, cut out of a mountain by a river of ice. The turquoise surface, 1.5 miles wide, stretches 20 miles in length through the North Cascades, a remote wilderness area of rocky, glacier capped mountains. There are remote peaks that usually require days of hiking to get to on either side of it. I think I can string together a course that lets me cover a peak on each side (North, South, East & West) including two countries (US & Canada) by running 100+ miles and SUPing another 50+. I’m super excited about it.

In order to prepare for it, I’ve been updating my gear this winter. Since this push will likely take me multiple days, I started research a new sleep setup, that is lightweight but much more comfortable that sleeping in the dirt with nothing but my clothes, like I did last year on my Mt. Rainier adventure. As part of that I learned a lot about insulation, heat loss and equipment materials. My basement has been a combination REI & science lab of sorts – I’ve been conducting research on the gear, weighing it & testing it out by sleeping nights on various combinations with the basement windows open to see what provides the most comfort for the least size and weight. Would I rather have a warmer mattress pad that weight 4 oz more or 4oz more down in my jacket to keep me warm? Or both but have a heavier pack overall? These are the fun sorts of questions I’ve been answering this winter.

I’ve landed on a simple setup of an inflatable mattress pad + pillow, a heat-reflective bivy sack and a down jacket. The whole sleep setup only weights ~3 lbs, (just a little more than the fleece + rain jacket I brought last year), takes up even less space, but provides much more warmth and comfort. It is warm enough that I can get decent sleep for 3-4 nights but light enough that I will still be able to run with it on my back. I also found a few other ways to cut weight, by buying lighter gear (ex. a 1oz pocket knife instead of my 4oz one). Overall I think I should be able to keep my pack weight under 10lbs, especially if I design the trip in a way that I can restock food periodically – I’m thinking of doing that by alternating between running & SUPing and keeping my full supply of food with the paddle board, stashed on the shore while I run a loop/peak. That will give me a chance to restock with each paddle, meaning I only need to carry 2-3 lbs of food at a time.

2020 Focus: Action Economy

With the start of a new year, I take the time to set my focus for the coming year. I believe that by being selective about where I direct my energy, I can achieve results that are exponentially greater than if I split that energy across many different goals.

More details about the process are in this blog post and you can review the results from past years (2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, & 2019).

2020 Theme: Action Economy

My theme for 2020 is action economy.

This is a phrase I’ve borrowed from board gaming where it describes the ability of a player to utilize their limited turn actions to maximize their ability to score points.

The real life application of this is efficiently using my resources (time, skills, knowledge, network, money, etc.) to achieve the goals that I’ve selected for myself.

This is the second full year of my sabbath cycle focused on preparing for my calling. As I think about achieving goals over the long term, and I realize how thin I am stretched, effectively using my resources has become a top priority for me. I need to get better and doing more with less. This year I want to spend some time thinking about that and building heuristics I can lean on in the future.

This year will be centered around learning how to effectively measure the inputs needed to achieve outputs, how to more accurately predict them ahead of time and how to reduce them.

2020 Challenge: Develop a Strategy Evaluation Model

For my challenge this year I am going to develop a model that I can use to evaluate various potential strategies for achieving a goal. I want to be able to use this to quickly (and hopefully accurately) predict the costs of each strategy, so that I can select the best one.

Some things I want to think through as part of this are; what is the value of my time?, how should I factor in risk potential?, how can I account for other externalities?, what other outputs do different strategies have? and how should I value them?

The end result, I hope, will be a model that lets me answer questions like; is it better to mow my lawn myself or pay a neighbor kid to do it?, should I take on a high paying project that uses my current skills or invest time learning a new skill?, or should I go on another training run before trying to run 93 miles around this volcano? (hint: yes)

2020 Habit: Run 13 Projects & 52 Common Tasks Through the Model

My habit will directly pour out of the challenge. I want to apply the model I develop to 13 of my 2020 projects and 52 of my common tasks. My hope is that by doing so, I’ll find out that some of the ways I spend my time or money are best handled in another fashion.

For the former, I will look at projects I take on during the year and use this to estimate the cost and effectiveness of the strategy, which I will then compare to the reality after the fact. I use GTD to organize my life and usually have ~6-10 projects that are active at any point – things like planning a vacation, getting a new job, buying a house, learning to stand up paddle, etc. These projects range in complexity and duration but what they all share is that they are things I want to have accomplished and if I can accurately define what it is that I want to accomplish, I can better optimize how I get that done.

For the latter, common tasks are something I track via recurring ToDos. I have ~100 that I undertake with various frequencies; 40 yearly (like this blog post!), 10 semi-annually, 17 quarterly, 9 monthly, 6 biweekly, 5 weekly and a few at various other increments in between. Those will be potential place for big impact, especially the tasks that take a significant amount of time due to the compounded impact of saving effort on a task that I repeat many times.

2020 Exemplar: Warren Buffett

I still struggle to find good Exemplars. I need someone that demonstrates the quality, that has documented their thoughts about it and/or that has had a lot written about them. That tends to limit me to famous and successful people. That doesn’t seem altogether wrong – successful people often get there due to the same good choices and behaviors I want to emulate. But they also get there by making certain tradeoffs and I’m worried I’m overexposing myself to those tradeoffs. I am also concerned that this pool of people is disproportionately white men – something that will limit the experiences I have a chance to learn from and relate to.

That said, I’ve chosen a successful, famous, white man this year because I had a hard time thinking of anyone that has had more success prioritizing and think about the value of things. I know essentially three things about Warren Buffett

  1. He has made a good bit of money investing in companies he thinks are valuable, when others don’t see the value
  2. He is an advocate of ruthless prioritization
  3. He has simple tastes and plans to give all of his money away

These things all seem like they fit with this year’s theme of action economy quite well. Buffett’s success and contemporariness also means there is a ton written about him.

Interestingly Buffett is the first exemplar I’ve selected who is still living and I’m actually only two degrees away from him socially – people I know have met him. I don’t think that means I’ll have a chance to spend 1:1 time with Buffett this year to learn from him directly, but I have thought about selecting exemplars I’m closer to in the future as a way to learn more directly from them. This feels like a step in that direction.

2020 Bucket List Item: 100+ Mile PNW SUP & Trail Running Adventure

This year for my bucket list item I’ve decided on the general flavor of what I want to do, but I haven’t yet figured out the specifics. I am going to combine two new loves of mine into something new (to me at least), awesome and thoroughly PNW.

The area I currently live is made up of mostly two things, bodies of water and wilderness areas with trails. I’ve been enjoying both over the past few years – running on the trails and SUPing in the water.

I decided to combine those into a single adventure by undertaking a 100+ mile SUP (stand up paddling) and trail running adventure.

By combining these two modes of transportation, I will be able to get to anywhere within ~100 miles of my house, including many remote spots that there is no easy way to go to via a single mode of transport. By land or by water, I will cut a path and get there. There is something really cool about that idea and it might open up some new camping options for the future.

It is also nice that these two activities utilize different parts of the body, so preparing for both of them should offer me some well rounded fitness this year.

I’m excited to figure out where I can go and then get there. The last time I went SUPing in the sound I had an encounter with a pod of jumping orcas and the last time I went for a trail run I bumped into a mountain lion, so combining the two sports feels ripe for adventure.