In 2022 I set my theme as ‘forecasting‘. My goal in selecting that theme was to get better at having realistic expectations about future, currently-unknowable events. So much of life requires making decisions where the eventual outcome is not based on a simple cause and effect equation. The important decisions tend to require we make them without full knowledge. Instead we have an opaque equation that will be resolved based on which one of a range of potential outcomes actually comes to be. Because of that, I believed that being better at forecasting the future would allow me to make better decisions, by better assessing the risk and reward profiles of those scenarios. Last January, when I selected it, I wrote: “My goal this year will be to learn more about forecasting and prediction. To figure out what the common shortcomings of predictors are, how to improve them in myself, and
This year I picked Steve Jobs as my exemplar since I think he demonstrates the trait I am focusing on learning about, ‘forecasting’ or better predicting what will happen in the future. I write these reviews following a review template to help me get the most out of the process of having an exemplar. Below is my entry for Steve Jobs. What did Steve Jobs achieve? He made the computer personal and helped increased the total addressable market by a few orders of magnitude. Why did he care about that? Jobs really cared about high quality products and he didn’t feel like anyone was making those in the computer space. He also wanted/needed money at various points. He also wanted to spite some people that doubted him or turned against him at various points. He was complicated. How did he think about the world differently than his contemporaries? As a funny
On July 22nd and 23rd, 2022 I completed the Cascade Crest 100 in just over 31 hours. Here is the race report Goals Results Enjoy being outside – ACCOMPLISHED Finish the course (even if after the allowed time) – ACCOMPLISHED Officially finish (under the official 34 hour cutoff) – ACCOMPLISHED Finish in under 30 hours – Not Accomplished Top 50% of finishers – Not Accomplished Finish in under 27 hours – Not Accomplished Top 25% of finishers – Not Accomplished Finish in under 24 hours (my bucket list item from last year) – Not Accomplished Strategy Start in that back and go slow for the first half. Start digging in the second half and pass as many people as possible. Finish strong. – ACCOMPLISHED & SUCCESSFUL Tactics Go out slow – back 25% for first 25 miles – ACCOMPLISHED Don’t exceed 140bpm in the first 26 miles – MOSTLY ACCOMPLISHED