In 2022 I set my theme as ‘forecasting‘. My goal in selecting that theme was to get better at having realistic expectations about future, currently-unknowable events. So much of life requires making decisions where the eventual outcome is not based on a simple cause and effect equation. The important decisions tend to require we make them without full knowledge. Instead we have an opaque equation that will be resolved based on which one of a range of potential outcomes actually comes to be. Because of that, I believed that being better at forecasting the future would allow me to make better decisions, by better assessing the risk and reward profiles of those scenarios. Last January, when I selected it, I wrote: “My goal this year will be to learn more about forecasting and prediction. To figure out what the common shortcomings of predictors are, how to improve them in myself, and
Better every year. That is my goal. I believe that through focused effort I can keep improving and ensure my best years are still in front of me. With that in mind, at the start of a new year, I take the time to set my focus for the coming year. By being selective about where I direct my energy, I can achieve results that are exponentially greater than if I split my attention. I detailed my 2022 focus here (read that first if you want more context) & did a quarter year and half year updates as well.. Here is how I’m progressing. 2022 Theme: Forecasting I’m 3.5 books into this theme and generally still enjoying it. I’ve found forecasting and optimal decision making are very closely intertwined topics and the book I’m reading now ‘Thinking Fast and Slow” is a bit more focused on decision making and how
Better every year. That is my goal. I believe that through focused effort I can keep improving and ensure my best years are still in front of me. With that in mind, at the start of a new year, I take the time to set my focus for the coming year. By being selective about where I direct my energy, I can achieve results that are exponentially greater than if I split my attention. I detailed my 2022 focus here (read that first if you want more context) & did a quarter year update as well.. Here is how I’m progressing. 2022 Theme: Forecasting I’m 2.5 books into this theme and really enjoying it. I’ve found forecasting and optimal decision making are very closely intertwined topics and so I might have to take up the latter topic soon in order to keep reading any of these I can’t finish this year. “Superforecasting:
Better every year. That is my goal. I believe that through focused effort I can keep improving and ensure my best years are still in front of me. With that in mind, at the start of a new year, I take the time to set my focus for the coming year. By being selective about where I direct my energy, I can achieve results that are exponentially greater than if I split my attention. I detailed my 2022 focus here (read that first if you want more context). Here is how I’m progressing. 2022 Theme: Forecasting I’ve gotten a good start to the year and have had a chance to make some solid progress here. I read Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip Tetlock and am now working on Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke. I’ve got a few more books lined up that were on my reading
Better every year. That is my goal. I believe that through focused effort I can keep improving and ensure my best years are still in front of me. With that in mind, at the start of a new year, I take the time to set my focus for the coming year. By being selective about where I direct my energy, I can achieve results that are exponentially greater than if I split my attention. More details about the process are in this blog post and you can review the results from past years (2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021). 2022 Theme: Forecasting This is the fifth year of my current sabbath cycle, a six year period where I am focused on preparing for my calling. When I selected that as the overarching vision, one of the things I talked about is how I might invest in key skills that I could leverage later.