In 2022 I set my theme as ‘forecasting‘. My goal in selecting that theme was to get better at having realistic expectations about future, currently-unknowable events. So much of life requires making decisions where the eventual outcome is not based on a simple cause and effect equation. The important decisions tend to require we make them without full knowledge. Instead we have an opaque equation that will be resolved based on which one of a range of potential outcomes actually comes to be. Because of that, I believed that being better at forecasting the future would allow me to make better decisions, by better assessing the risk and reward profiles of those scenarios. Last January, when I selected it, I wrote: “My goal this year will be to learn more about forecasting and prediction. To figure out what the common shortcomings of predictors are, how to improve them in myself, and